Barely Significant
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Overconfidence in the Cognitive Reflection Test: Comparing Confidence Resolution for Reasoning vs. General Knowledge.

J Intell · 2023 · PMC10219213 · PMID 37233330

1
hedged sentence
0.0680
closest p · 1.4× alpha
0.0680
boldest claim

The sentences

marginally significantp = .068so close (0.05 < p ≤ 0.1)
incorrect for conflict problems, t (42) = 4.64, p < .001, d = 0.71; (2) the same difference holds for no-conflict problems, t (42) = 4.60, p < .001, d = 0.70; (3) correct responses to conflict problems were produced with greater confidence than correct responses to no-conflict problems, t (67) = 2.72, p = .008, d = 0.33; (4) incorrect responses to conflict problems were presented with greater confidence than incorrect responses to no-conflict problems, though this difference was marginally significant, t (34) = 1.88, p = .068, d = 0.32, which most likely relates to the fact that this was the pairwise comparison (out of the 6 tests presented here) with fewer datapoints; indeed, the difference in overall values for these cells (not conditional on whether participants committed both types of error)

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