Prediction of reported monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Hainan Province of China based on SARIMA-BPNN model.

Trend effect and seasonal effect analysis The long-term trend T t of the monthly incidence series of hepatitis B x t in Hainan Province was extracted using the 2 × 12 compound moving average method, and the incidence series and the long-term trend graph are shown in Figure 2 , which shows a decreasing trend in the incidence of hepatitis B of Hainan Province. x t T t is used to eliminate the trend effect, which is denoted as y t .

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