Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean.

Moreover, the correlation between ensemble mean forecasts of SST EEIO and their error is highly significant (r = 0.77, p < 10 − 8 ), i.e. small real multi-annual variations in the state of the IOD are vastly exaggerated by the hindcasts and indicate state-dependence of SEAS5 forecast errors in the EEIO.

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