Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region.

Results of the Mann-Kendall indicate that the warming trend is highly significant in all time series ( p < 0.001) (Table 4 ), except the MEF station data which was likely due to the shorter period of record (1961–present).

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However, the addition of covariates improved model performance somewhat by decreasing model AIC and resulting in a marginally significant difference in log-likelihood ( p < 0.1).

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