Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability.

3 i), an increasing trend in record-shattering probability due to the μ -trend only appears as well.

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Analytical rationale From the findings above a picture emerges in which record-shattering probability responds instantaneously to a positive trend in σ , whereas the sensitivity to the trend in μ is lower and appears with some delay.

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