From 2010 to 2021, a positive trend was observed in the reduction of both deaths and DALYs among younger age groups and individuals impacted by tobacco use.
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Estimation of burden of cancer incidence and mortality in India: based on global burden of disease study 1990-2021.
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The DALYs rate, modelled by ARIMA (0,3,3), shows a decreasing trend from 2001.53 with 95% CI (1964.24-2038.82) in 2022 to 1842.08 with 95% CI (1273.57-2410.60) in 2031, suggesting an improvement in the overall cancer burden, although the confidence intervals remain substantial.
The study developed an ARIMA (2,1,0) model using Box-Jenkins methodology to accurately forecast cancer case admissions in Kenya, showing an increasing trend in incidents from 2015 to 16 onwards, aiding health facilities in decision-making [ 23 ].