Uncertainties around net-zero climate targets have major impact on greenhouse gas emissions projections.

Ann N Y Acad Sci · 2025 · PMC11829319 · PMID 39799582

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an increasing trendno p-value reported

Emissions from countries without net‐zero targets show an increasing trend from around 8.3 GtCO 2 eq in 2015 to 13.1 GtCO 2 eq (full range: 9.1–14.3 GtCO 2 eq) by 2050, and their share of global GHG emissions rises from 16% in 2015 to 42% (full range 36–39%) in 2050.

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