Changing Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in two villages of northeastern Tanzania between 2003 and 2021 in relation to vectors, interventions and climatic factors.

Between 2003 and 2021 there was an increasing trend in average monthly maximum temperatures (R2 = 0.1253 and 0.2005), and precipitation (R2 = 0.125 and 0.110) as well as minimum relative humidity (R2 = 0.141 and 0.1162) in Kwamasimba and Mkokola villages, respectively, while maximum relative humidity slightly decreased.

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During 2003–2011, malaria prevalence exhibited a decreasing trend and there were significant positive associations with annual average temperature (Estimate: 0.123, p < 0.001), maximum temperature (Estimate: 0.026, p < 0.001), and relative humidity (Estimate: 0.04, p < 0.001).

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