Real-time monitoring of excess mortality under a new endemic regime.

Euro Surveill · 2025 · PMC12207195 · PMID 40575909

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an increasing trendno p-value reported

As implemented by UKONS, the trend is monotonic and linear, and when parts of the pandemic period were included in training the model, we found the model to identify an increasing trend for the entire training period, consequently overestimating mortality for 2–3 years leading up to the pandemic.

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