Esophageal cancer trends in the US from 1992 to 2019 with projections to 2044 using SEER data.

ESCC incidence rates showed a decreasing trend for all variables in the study, with the largest decrease being black (AAPC, − 5.5% [95% CI − 5.9% to − 5.2%]), followed by having a localized tumor, age < 60, and tumor location in middle or lower esophagus (Figs. 3 and 4 ; Table S3 ).

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Incidence-based mortality trends of esophageal cancer (1993–2019) From 1993 to 1998, we observed an increasing trend in overall incidence-based mortality rates for esophageal cancer, with an APC of 4.8% (95% CI 2.4–7.1%), followed by a significant annual decline from 1998 to 2019 (APC, − 1.0% [95% CI − 1.2% to − 0.7%]) (Fig. 1 ).

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