When Success Is Surprising: Children's Ability to Use Surprise to Infer Competence.

Open Mind (Camb) · 2025 · PMC12283150 · PMID 40697897

Europe PMC DOI

hedged sentence

0.0610

closest p · 1.2× alpha

0.0610

boldest claim

The sentences

marginally significantp = .061so close (0.05 < p ≤ 0.1)

In the Success condition, 6 year-olds’ performance was in the predicted direction but did not reach significance (61.67% chose the no-surprise student, Z = 1.347, p = .248), 7 year-olds’ performance was marginally significant (68.33%, Z = 2.043, p = .061), and 8 year-olds’ performance was significant (75%, Z = 2.88, p = .006).

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