Regional patterns of excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic: a state-level analysis.

For the change in excess mortality from the second to the third pandemic year, the analysis showed that vaccination rate (third pandemic year) remained a highly significant positive predictor of the increase in excess mortality ( β = 0.68 ; s . e . = 0.08 ; 95% CI [ 0.20 , 0.56 ] ; t ( 13 ) = 4.57 ; p < 0.001 ), after adjusting for prior-year excess mortality, which was itself a marginally significant covariate ( β = − 0.31 ; s . e . = 0.20 ; p = 0.055 ).

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The change score analysis reveals a marginally significant positive correlation between vaccination rate and the change in excess mortality from the first to the second pandemic year ( r = 0.45 , p = 0.081 ).

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