CMIP6 models cannot capture long-term forced changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient.

For observations, the second-order trend is positive for almost all trend lengths (with a small range of marginally insignificant trends with lengths between 74 and 78 years, all with 0.05 < p -value < 0.08), reflecting that ΔSST west-east is increasing at a growing rate (Fig. 4b, c ).

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An observed trend is considered to have been matched by a given model ensemble if the 5–95% range in modeled trend values overlaps the observed trend probability distribution by >5% (see “Methods” section).

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