Genetic diversity hotspot at the edge of the species range: integrating plastome phylogeography with ecological niche modelling for the conservation of Ulmus glabra Huds. in the Italian peninsula.

Future habitat suitability variation Pearson’s correlation coefficients between the habitat suitability maps generated for the different timeframes (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and future climate scenarios were all higher than 0.999 for the ALP models and between 0.991 and 0.999 for APE; all the correlations were highly significant after Dutilleul's correction for spatial autocorrelation (p < 1×10 −5 ).

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