Epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of varicella from 2014 to 2023 in Chongqing, China.

Although the results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicate that no stable and consistent global spatial autocorrelation pattern is observed for the reported incidence of varicella in Chongqing on a city-wide scale, since the global Moran’s I reflects the overall intensity of the spatial-dependent varicella incidence on a city-wide scale, when the significant aggregation is limited to only a few districts and counties, and the remaining areas are approximately randomly distributed, The global Moran’s I may not be significant.

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Conclusion The varicella incidence rate in Chongqing has shown an increasing trend since 2014, with a sharp decline in 2020, followed by a fluctuating downward trend.

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