Climate-Driven Redistribution of Early-Spring Ephemeral Plant Communities in Cold Arid Deserts: Evidence from the Gurbantunggut Desert, China.

From P1 to P2 and from P2 to P3, the NDVI level of early-spring ephemeral plants showed a decreasing trend ( Figure 4 and Table 3 ).

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Our results indicate that: (1) the life cycle extraction method achieved a classification accuracy exceeding 80%, and from 2001 to 2022, the overall distribution of early-spring ephemeral plants exhibited an increasing trend; (2) snowend, snowday, and precipitation during the driest quarter were the primary drivers of ephemeral plant distribution, collectively explaining over 60% of the observed variation, and structural equation modeling further revealed that snow and precipitation had significant positive effects on their distribution; and (3) under future climate scenarios, Medium-NDVI areas are projected to expand northward and westward, with the potential emergence of new suitable habitats in northern localities by mid-century.

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