Estimation of seroconversion and vaccination impact against FMD in India during 2006-2022 using survey sampling and Bayesian approaches.

For example, factors such as state, dilution, and sampling design exhibited highly significant effects (α = 0.001) on seromonitoring variability, whereas other factors were significant at the 1% level (α = 0.01) (Table S6 ).

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More specifically: (i) in Region I, the tails of the curve gradually declined until 2011, reaching a local minimum; (ii) in Region II, seroconversion increased sharply during 2011–2014, followed by a plateau in 2015; (iii) Region III was characterized by a steep decline in seroconversion; and (iv) in Region IV, the right tail of the curve indicated an increasing trend in seroconversion after 2020 (Fig. 3 B).

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The first region (2006–2010) exhibited a decreasing trend in seroconversion; the second region (2011–2014) showed a sharp increase; the third region (2015–2019) again demonstrated a declining trend; and the fourth region (2020–2022) indicated an increasing trend, suggesting improved implementation of vaccination and enhanced seromonitoring practices under the LHDCP.

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