Is equine colic seasonal? Novel application of a model based approach.

For the same data set we find situations where a model with latent serial correlation and 12- and 6-month cycles but no trend term is selected as optimal by DIC comparison (Table 3 ), whereas in the case where serial dependence is excluded, a model with those same seasonal components and a positive trend is selected (Table 4 ).

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More compelling evidence of an increasing trend over time occurs in the cases where sample sizes are larger.

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