Multi-step polynomial regression method to model and forecast malaria incidence.

deaths show a decreasing trend after remaining almost constant (though high) over the period June–October, 2006.

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In the second order models, we choose the variables exhibiting highly significant partial t -statistic and we continue this process with higher order models (considering higher order non-linearity) until all variables are exhausted or no other variables meet the criterion set above, whichever earlier.

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