Modelling the progression of bird migration with conditional autoregressive models applied to ringing data.

No significant change in spring and autumn phenology in the British Isles was detected, which is consistent with Mason [43] , who did not find a long-term trend in arrival dates of Barn Swallows between 1942 and 1991, and with Sparks & Carey [34] , who found only a slight trend toward a later arrival over two centuries.

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