Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India.

In the NW India area, there is somewhat significant skill in the malaria forecasts compared to the TRMM-ERAI malaria time series for above average and low events in particular, again limited by the short length of the time series.

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The three-month lead time System-4 malaria seasonal time series in the NE India region is significantly skillful for high and above average malaria events compared to both the ERAI (Figure 8 a-c) and IMD (Figure 8 d-f) datasets whereas there does appear to be some skill but it is marginally significant for low malaria events and for all events when comparing System-4 forecasts to the TRMM-ERAI dataset (Figure 8 g-i), probably because of the short length of the time series: only 13 years compared to 30 years for ERAI and IMD.

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