Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk.

We estimate the Kendall’s τ rank correlation, using the Kendall package, to determine whether the indicators show an increasing or a decreasing trend in the period 1 year prior to the crash.

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Alternatively, if the histogram shows a peak at values far away from 1, it indicates a weak trend.

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Thus, in this route to abrupt transition, we will observe no critical slowing down but an increasing trend of variance and power spectrum at all frequencies ( Fig 3 ).

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