Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review.

There was a decreasing trend in the reported values with time ( r = −0·5, P = 0·004), large estimates being more frequent at first.

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A first explanation was the inclusion of correction for under‐reporting: while no correction was applied for an early estimate in Mexico ( R = 2·2 38 ) and another analysis ( R = 2·3 29 ), accounting for an increasing trend in case reporting led to large differences, from 2·4 to 1·6 after such correction in Australia, 44 from 2·2 to 1·7 in the United States, 36 and from 2 to 1·4 in Mexico. 42 Another issue was the importance of school outbreaks in the early epidemic curve, so that the estimated reproduction number was not representative of transmission in the community.

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