Ducks change wintering patterns due to changing climate in the important wintering waters of the Odra River Estuary.

The population indices of Scaup and Tufted Duck in the ORE exhibited an increasing trend (β Scaup = 0.026 ± 0.010s.e., p = 0.011; however for Tufted Duck it was marginally insignificant β = 0.008 ± 0.004 s.e., p = 0.058), despite the general decline in their entire northern and western European populations; numbers of both species in the ORE were adversely affected by ice cover in that region (β Scaup = − 0.065 ± 0.011s.e., p < 0.001; β Tufted = 0.032 ± 0.005s.e., p < 0.001) but not by ice cover in the whole Baltic (β Scaup = − 0.099 ± 0.074s.e., p = 0.186; β Tufted = 0.010 ± 0.029s.e., p = 0.735).

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