Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

each country in each year) in the sample, where all but significant indicators are removed up until a target significance level p α , and remaining outlying observations are identified.

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The relationships between projected impacts and current income levels are highly significant for all three comparisons of warming scenarios (between 1.5°C, 2°C and no additional warming), and the estimated slope between impacts and income becomes steeper for larger temperature changes—the warming effects diverge more across incomes as temperatures increase, suggesting an increase in inequality across countries.

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