Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data.

PLoS Comput Biol · 2018 · PMC6010299 · PMID 29883444

Europe PMC DOI

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a decreasing trendno p-value reported

an increasing trendno p-value reported

If the AUC < 0.5 then a decreasing trend in the EWS indicates emergence, whereas if AUC > 0.5 an increasing trend indicates emergence.

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Quoted from the open-access full text in Europe PMC under the licence the publisher applied. The sentence is reproduced exactly as published; the emphasis is ours.