Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations.

PLoS One · 2018 · PMC6116975 · PMID 30161140

Europe PMC DOI

hedged sentences

0.0830

closest p · 1.7× alpha

0.0830

boldest claim

The sentences

marginally significantp = .083so close (0.05 < p ≤ 0.1)

After taking the test, by True Overplacement, all but the Japanese significantly decrease their estimates (-6.78%, p = .022; -8.07%, p = .002; -4.28%, p = .032; and 1.98%, p = .435, respectively), but all remain overplaced, significantly so for the Hong Kong Chinese (5.80%, p = .050) and Japanese (6.93%, p = .045) and marginally significant for the European Canadians (6.88%, p = .083).

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a slight trendno p-value reported

For the Japanese and European Canadians, the sexes act more similarly, with a slight trend towards higher female certainty among European Canadians for the empathy test.

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Quoted from the open-access full text in Europe PMC under the licence the publisher applied. The sentence is reproduced exactly as published; the emphasis is ours.