Trend forecasting of main groups of causes-of-death in Iran using the Lee-Carter model.

As the importance of predicting mortality has an increasing trend, several methods have also been developed for modeling and forecasting mortality ( 5 ).

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g the years 2006 to 2015 in the 5-year age groups and in total population were calculated and then the rates forecasted for the next 20 years utilizing the Lee Carter model, as shown in Table 1 . According to the results, the crude death rate in all age groups under 75 years from 2006 to 2015 had a decreasing trend, and this negative trend is expected to continue until 2035.

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