Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020.

In addition, hospital-based transmission has occurred, potentially affecting healthcare workers, inpatients, and visitors at healthcare facilities, which might explain an increasing trend and the elevated CFR estimates.

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Our estimates of the time-delay adjusted CFR appear to be decreasing almost consistently in Hubei Province excluding Wuhan and in China excluding Hubei Province, whereas in Wuhan, estimates were low at the early stage and then increased and peaked in the middle of the study period; the Wuhan estimates then followed a decreasing trend similar to the other 2 areas, reaching ≈12%.

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