Assessment of the outbreak risk, mapping and infection behavior of COVID-19: Application of the autoregressive integrated-moving average (ARIMA) and polynomial models.

PLoS One · 2020 · PMC7386644 · PMID 32722716

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a decreasing trendno p-value reported

It is worth noting that a turning point means that after passing the peak, it is expected to show a decreasing trend.

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an increasing trendno p-value reported

The results of the third-degree polynomial and ARIMA models in the province revealed an increasing trend with an evidence of turning, demonstrating extensive quarantines has been effective.

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