Do changes in STEC diagnostics mislead interpretation of disease surveillance data in Switzerland? Time trends in positivity, 2007 to 2016.

From our analyses, indications for a real increase in STEC incidence independent of the diagnostic test method are threefold: (i) Our logistic regressions and predicted probabilities for a positive STEC test outcome showed an increasing trend between 2007 and 2016 even after adjusting for the diagnostic method, (ii) the predicted probabilities for a positive STEC test show an increasing trend for all methods (multiplex PCR, single PCR and antigen test) and (iii) an increase in positivity was also seen in two laboratories introducing multiplex PCR panels late, i.e. in the second half of 2016, or not at all.

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