Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: Application to epidemiological incidence data.

In particular, the Kendall-tau score which can be an indication of an increasing trend, is negative (decreasing, τ = −1) for this model, whilst for SIS with social distancing and SIS emergence we find that τ = 0.987 and τ = 1 respectively.

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In particular, the variance displays a decreasing trend on the approach to disease elimination, contrary to that expected from critical slowing down theory; this could lead to unreliable indicators of elimination when calculated on real-world data.

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