Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in India and significance of lockdown: A mathematical outlook

In the present case, data on the reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 are available on a daily, thus the daily percent change ( DPC ) from day t to day ( t + 1) is defined as (14) DPC = y t + 1 − y t y t × 100 If the trend in the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 is modeled as (15) ln y t = b 0 + b 1 t + ɛ then, it can be shown that the DPC is equal to (16) DPC = e b 1 − 1 × 100 It is worthwhile to discuss here is that the positive value of DPC indicates an increasing trend while the negative value of DPC suggests a declining trend.

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