Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.

By contrast, the DTR changes for RCP 8.5 varied considerably by country and region; DTR was projected to increase in most countries (by −0·4 to 1·6°C), and a notable increase was projected in the USA, Mexico, south-central Europe, and South Africa, whereas a decreasing trend was projected in tropical and subtropical countries and regions (Thailand and Taiwan), and in countries at high latitudes (Canada, Estonia, and Finland).

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The increase in DTR was projected to be more prominent in the warm or moderate seasons than in cold season in most countries, showing an increasing trend in DTR (except for Mexico and South Africa), and the decline in the cold season was observed in countries that showed a decreasing DTR trend ( appendix p 12).

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