Modelling of malaria risk, rates, and trends: A spatiotemporal approach for identifying and targeting sub-national areas of high and low burden.

Districts were categorised as having either an increasing trend (red), a constant/no change trend (black) or a decreasing trend (blue) with the darker/deeper the shading, the higher the posterior probability for that trend and vice versa.

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Our results indicate that over 3 million people in Zambia live in high-burden districts with either high mortality burden or high incidence burden coupled with an increasing trend over 16 years (2000 to 2015) for all age, under-five and over-five cohorts.

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