Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead.

The model can make predictions of the WNP TC density averaged over the WNP (0°–60°N,100°E–180°) during June–August, which corresponds to the first half of the WNP TC season 34 , with a highly significant skill ( r = 0.67, p < 0.001) for the first summer (Fig. 5a ) and a moderate skill ( r = 0.39, p = 0.017) for the second summer (Fig. 5b ).

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