Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland.

For instance, the ARIMA error model shows that the negative effect of the first lockdown is also statistically significant in the case of public order and possession of weapon offences, the effect of time since the second and third lockdowns is also significant in the case of possession of drug crimes (while the negative effect of the third lockdown on possession of drugs may not be significant), and the negative effect of the third lockdown on criminal damage is statistically significant. 6 In the case of residential burglary, the ARIMA error model (“Appendix”) indicates that only the effect of the first lockdown was statistically significant. 7 The results of our ARIMA error models show similar results on the statistical significance of the changes in bicycle theft and shoplifting, whereas some differences are found in theft from person and theft of/from vehicle (see “Appendix”).

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