Precision weighting of cortical unsigned prediction error signals benefits learning, is mediated by dopamine, and is impaired in psychosis.

The unsigned*signed prediction error interaction term was highly significant in predicting updates ( F {1,10763} = 51.7, p < 0.0001), demonstrating the importance of unsigned prediction errors in learning (Supplementary Fig. 2 ).

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Third, neural evidence suggests that the FEP group does not precision-weight cortical prediction errors to the extent that healthy controls do, and that the degree of neural abnormality may relate to positive psychotic symptom severity (we acknowledge that the modest patient sample size and marginal significance of the correlation is not conclusive, though the relation is supported by the finding that in healthy individuals the degree of cortical precision-weighting relates to schizotypy, consistent with a continuum model of psychosis).

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