Overlapping timescales obscure early warning signals of the second COVID-19 wave.

Particularly, if an epidemic that seems initially contained after a first wave does not fully settle to its new quasi-equilibrium prior to changing circumstances or conditions that force a second wave, then indicators will show a decreasing rather than an increasing trend as a result of the persistent transient trajectory of the first wave.

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The key issue is that the sampling distribution created under this methodology is not centred around a negative Kendall’s τ (implying a decreasing trend) but a Kendall’s τ of around zero (implying no trend).

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