Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.

BMC Public Health · 2022 · PMC9204078 · PMID 35715790

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a decreasing trendno p-value reported

From 2007 to 2020, China’s national incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases shows a decreasing trend year by year (from 272.37/100,000 in 2007 to 190.35/100,000 in 2020), with the east dropping from 249.93/100,000 in 2007 to 165.45/100,000 in 2020, the central from 262.18/100,000 in 2007 to 191.63/100,000 in 2020 and the west from 360.07/100,000 in 2007 to 232.18/100,000 in 2020.

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an increasing trendno p-value reported

The forecasted incidence rates of Class B notifiable infectious diseases nationwide from 2021 to 2024 (205.26/100,000, 199.95/100,000, 194.74/100,000 and 189.62/100,000) as well as the forecasted values for most regions show a downward trend, with only some regions (Guangdong, Hunan, Hainan, Tibet, Guangxi and Guizhou) showing an increasing trend year by year.

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