Applying SARIMA, ETS, and hybrid models for prediction of tuberculosis incidence rate in Taiwan.

1 , the outcome of the seasonal-trend decomposition method, yields an overall trend with several composers including a 12-month stochastic seasonality; a downward overall trend with highest in 2005 (72.5 per 100,000 person-year) and lowest in 2020 (33.2 per 100,000 person-year) as well as a periodically change of disease incidences ( Figs. 1A , 1C ).

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