Prediction of upcoming global infection burden of influenza seasons after relaxation of public health and social measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.

The immediate reductions in transmissibility accounting for the effect of PHSMs were highly significant (p values <0·001) and with estimated reductions ranging from 17% (95% CI 13 to 21) to 41% (35 to 46) across the locations and countries, with comparatively higher reductions for Hong Kong and Italy, for which the COVID-19 PHSMs were implemented just before or around the expected seasonal peak ( figure 2 , table , appendix 1 p 21 ).

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