Spatiotemporal trends and ecological determinants of cardiovascular mortality among 2844 counties in mainland China, 2006-2020: a Bayesian modeling study of national mortality registries.

At the second stage, we further classified a county under each risk category in the first stage into one of the three trend patterns by using estimates of local slopes b 1 i , namely, a county with a faster increasing local trend than global trend if p ( b 1 i > 0| h i , data ) > 0.8, a decreasing trend relative to the global trend if p ( b 1 i > 0| h i , data ) < 0.2, and a local trend not differing from the global trend if 0.2 < p ( b 1 i > 0| h i , data ) < 0. 8 [ 15 , 34 , 41 , 44 ].

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