Uncertainty quantification in mechanistic epidemic models via cross-entropy approximate Bayesian computation.

Other unmodeled effects that may be significant are related to social behavior change due to the course of the epidemic (e.g. risk perception, change in the pattern of social iterations, mask use, etc.) [ 78 ], reinfections [ 51 ], etc.

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Throughout the outbreak, the variation in population size is slight compared to its initial size (10 thousand is a small number compared to 5.5 million, around 0.2%) but highly significant in demographic terms.

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