Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models.

1e ), which effectively reduces cloud reflection of solar radiation, indicated by a positive trend in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) SW cloud radiative effects (SWCRE) (Fig. 1c ), and generates excessive heating at the surface.

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In contrast, in the low ECS models as indicated by MPI-ESM2-LR, the variability of extratropical low clouds is mainly dominated by a low-top cloud regime, which exhibits a seasonal cycle that largely follows the lower-tropospheric stability, i.e., with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter, and lacks a significant trend under a warming climate.

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While a decreasing trend in the extratropical ascending motion with recent warming is also evident in the low ECS models including MPI-ESM2-LR (Fig. 4c ), the change in tropospheric vertical motion tends to not effectively affect low clouds in these models due to a decoupling between LCF and the vertically-extended clouds as previously discussed.

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While an increasing trend in SWCRE during 1980–2014 is found in the high ECS models, which tends to be supported by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite observations 31 , almost no trend is detected in the low ECS models (Fig. 4d ).

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