Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

An accurate representation of the spatial and temporal variability of greenhouse gasses is also paramount, as recent studies showed an increasing trend and a heterogeneous spatial pattern in the MENA region 153 , 154 .

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Focusing on the MENA region, the increase in precipitable water, air temperature and dust loading seen in the summer season are also present in the colder months, although a negative trend in the cloud cover (− 0.03% year −1 ) and precipitation rate (− 2.1 × 10 −6 mm h −1 year −1 ) yield an increase (0.17 W m −2 year −1 ) in the downward shortwave radiation flux at the surface as opposed to the decrease (− 0.33 W m −2 year −1 ) seen in the warmer months (Table 3 ).

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