Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries.

For specialists, Figure 3B , we find consistently positive density gaps, which are highly significant in many countries (Croatia, Denmark, Malta, Romania, and Slovenia).

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We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased healthcare utilisation due to COVID-19 on this supply. Results: Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density.

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