Modeling the distribution of cultural ecosystem services based on future climate variables under different scenarios.

(2) Under the SSP126 scenario, the total CES shows an increasing trend from 2021 to 2040, but slightly declines from 2061 to 2080.

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As Bio2 (mean diurnal range) increases, total CES shows an overall trend of increasing and then decreasing across scenarios and years, with the first small peak of Bio2 occurring between 6.75 and 8.10, the second small peak between 9.45 and 10.80, and the SSP585 scenario having significantly higher peaks than the SSP126 scenario across years.

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Compared with the period from 2021 to 2040, the recreational and entertainment CES in provinces such as Guizhou, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangdong, and Fujian shows a decreasing trend from 2041 to 2060.

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Under the SSP585 scenario, from 2041 to 2060, the high-value areas of cultural and spiritual CES in provinces such as Guizhou, western Hunan, and Hubei showed a trend of eastward contraction.

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