Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s.

Across both reconstructions, a positive trend for the AMOC at 26.5°N can be found from 1963 to 2017 of 0.022 ± 0.005 Sv per decade (ERA5) and 0.022 ± 0.003 Sv per decade (JRA-55).

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Based on the observation-based air-sea heat flux estimates, we confirm the absence of an overall trend of the AMOC but find decadal variability.

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However, a negative trend is unlikely, especially given that atmospheric warming would lead to a negative bias in the reconstructed AMOC over this period.

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