Negative trend in total solar irradiance over the satellite era.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A · 2025 · PMC11929493 · PMID 40063807

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a negative trendno p-value reported

Reconciling proxy and satellite-based observations of TSI measurements using a Bayesian model, we find a negative trend in TSI of −0.15 W/m 2 per decade over the satellite era of 1980 to 2023 with a 95% CI of −0.17 to −0.13 W/m 2 per decade.

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an overall trendno p-value reported

The full BTSI reconstruction uses solar magnetic proxies as a reference to infer the average collective drift of satellites over time, yielding an overall trend uncertainty of only ±0.02 W/m 2 per decade (95% CI) ( Fig. 2 ).

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